But despite the fact that I'm changing jobs, I still intend to keep this blog alive. It will still remain my personal learning space, on which I'll be talking about my personal learning experiences, emerging technologies, and of course the occasional random thoughts of a geek :) So stay tuned, and if you've got more questions about my new professional adventure let me know!
Starting up a new adventure
As you might have already noticed, my job description on LinkedIn, Facebook and on my blog has changed. Yes, it's true, after weeks of planning and considering different options I finally decided to try something new and co-found a company - Artesia.si that will specialize in 2D and 3D virtual communities. We will be offering consulting for companies wanting to improve or build virtual communities, and I will mostly focus on testing new technologies, planning and delivering (e)learning for our clients, and on presenting our company in Second Life. At least for now we'll be focusing on the Slovenian market, so we only have a website in Slovenian. But we do have a virtual office in Second Life that you can all visit (yeah, we're a real flat world company with no brick and mortar office :) ). And things are actually already moving faster than we could hope for. On Thursday we were invited to help with a piece on Second Life for the evening news on national television in Slovenia! I have the video with English subtitles on Facebook if you'd like to see how it turned out :)
But despite the fact that I'm changing jobs, I still intend to keep this blog alive. It will still remain my personal learning space, on which I'll be talking about my personal learning experiences, emerging technologies, and of course the occasional random thoughts of a geek :) So stay tuned, and if you've got more questions about my new professional adventure let me know!
But despite the fact that I'm changing jobs, I still intend to keep this blog alive. It will still remain my personal learning space, on which I'll be talking about my personal learning experiences, emerging technologies, and of course the occasional random thoughts of a geek :) So stay tuned, and if you've got more questions about my new professional adventure let me know!
Giving good directions
Lately I seem to be stumbling a common problem a lot while surfing the web, visiting different places in Second Life or just going to different analogue places by analogue roads. That problem is lack of good directions related to different content and places.A common example: I often find an interesting blog post, and when I try to find more about the person that wrote it or the purpose of the blog, there is nothing. Nada. On blogs, I often get my hopes up when I see the "About" page, but too often I find the default message to the owner of the blog that no visitor should ever see (something like: "Write something about yourself/your blog on this page"). I really don't expect everyone to provide their full CV and contact information, but even if you decide to be anonymous, you can at least tell us what field you work in and what is the purpose of the blog.
Then another common example from Second Life. I won't even mention those places that are supposed to have a grand opening and can't be found anywhere on the map or under search. What I find even more disturbing is getting to a new place and receiving no clue of what the place is about and no help for getting easily from one part of the sim to the other (i.e. teleporters). Flying is fun in Second Life, but I don't always have the time or will to fly from one corner of the sim to the other to see there is nothing really interesting on the other side.
The immediate reaction to the lack of (good) directions is for me confusion, self-consciousness (thoughts like: are there really no directions here or is it my fault that I can't find them?), and the final result is usually leaving the confusing place without plans to return in the near future. This confusing place should of course never be your online course site, your virtual world presence, or even your personal or professional website.
So, what can we do to avoid users leaving our places, and how can we prepare good directions for our users (students, clients or friends)? Having really good directions is not an easy job I grant you, but I think there are some things we can do to get closer to that goal:
- The first step is of course recognizing that some directions are needed. In our enthusiasm of building something new we often forget that.
- Think like a newbie and like an average user of your content when preparing directions, and (if possible) test them on a random person that was not involved in the design process and is not a super geek. If your grandparents can understand your directions you're certainly on the right track!
- Make directions easy to read, help yourself with simple visual clues (a map, icons etc.). Keep it simple and try to include the basic information. First time users/visitors don't need to know all the details, but they should be able to get to those later when they need them.
- Make directions visible for first time visitor, but not disturbing to frequent visitors. Avoid using intrusive tools such as pop-up messages. The first time user might appreciate them, but only the first time. On the second visit he/she will start looking for the mute button, on the forth he/she will start looking for excuses for not visiting.
- Not all directions should look like they're there just because they have to be there. Add value: entertain your visitor, provide additional functions (i.e. teleporting in Second Life, a list of the most interesting posts etc.), make them feel welcome and appreciated.
- Be polite to all users, not just those that you want to have today or those that pay you. You never know when you'll need somebody, so try to make a good first impression on everyone.
- Provide personal support options. Even if you don't manage to give good directions, you can be saved by giving your users/visitors/students and easy way to contact you and get personal directions from you or your staff. It's the age of a user-centric web, on which we like the feeling we can all go talk to the boss if we want to.
- Listen to user feedback. And don't listen just to the users that talk to you. Sometimes you have to make the first step and ask the users for feedback.
On my blog, I try to provide good directions by having a "Who am I?" block right on the top of the blog sidebar, which has some basic info about me and a few links to my extended profiles if the visitors want to know more about me. Also, I decided to visualize my blog purpose with a simple moto (Click. Learn. Share.) and icons right below. I might also add some links to my most interesting posts in the future, but overall I hope I did a decent job in providing directions and different ways for navigation. If you think I'm missing something, please let me know :)
I certainly think that once in a while we should all stop to think about how new users feel when they first enter one of our places. And I think we can often find some little and sweet details to add that will make the visiting experience for first-timers and regulars alike that more pleasurable and memorable.
The (partial) state of the mobile data market
Despite all the hype and excitement about the mobile data market, it is very difficult to get reliable data on how it's actually developing. The mobile operators don't like to release full details of their sales, and surveys of users cost a lot of money to conduct and therefore are usually available only to people who pay.
We're left to chew on anecdotes, partial information released by companies that are trying to push a point of view, and unscientific "polls" of online enthusiasts.
So I'm always on the lookout for more rigorous information. Recently I came across several fairly good sources of data, and they give some interesting perspectives on what's happening with mobile data. It is by no means a complete view, and most of it is US only. But I think it's worth sharing.
Steady, unspectacular growth
The overall picture of mobile data is one of steady but unspectacular growth. It's a bit like watching a tree grow -- you can't see anything changing day to day, but if you walk away and come back in six months you'll notice the difference. SMS continues to be the dominant service, especially in Europe, and there's no sign of some other service surpassing it.
Is the growth rate good or bad? It all depends on how much growth you were expecting, and how fast you wanted it to happen. The one thing I think is very clear is that each country market is different, and you can't classify any of them as leaders and laggards. They're just unique.
Here are the details:
Capabilities of mobile phones in the US
The Pew Internet organization has been surveying Americans on their Internet usage for years. A couple of the questions in their survey ask about the data capabilities of their mobile phones. In the most recent results, from early 2006, 75% of mobile phone users in the US said their phones are capable of texting. 63% said they can play games, and 39% said they have cameraphones. Here's the full chart:
Nothing there stands out as shocking, although I expected the penetration of cameraphones to be higher. My guess is it has gone up in the last year.
(Note that some people could have capabilities in their phones and not realize it. So the question tells us as much about awareness of features as it does about the phones themselves.)
What people do with their phones: Nothing else rivals SMS
The chart below examines the percent of mobile phone users in the US and several European countries who have ever performed various tasks with their mobile phones. The source is M:Metrics, Q4 2006, and the numbers were quoted in a presentation by Orange / France Telecom.
The figures show that there's no other mobile data service with near the penetration of short messaging service (texting). That's not really news, but it's striking to see the hard numbers. About 80-85% of people in most of the big European countries have ever sent a text message, with France lagging slightly (at about 75%). In the US, almost 40% of mobile phone users report that they have sent a text message.
The next closest service is picture messaging, with 20-30% of mobile users in the big European countries saying they have received photo messages at least once. In the US, the figure is 15%. It's ironic that photo messaging is in second place, since it's generally considered a major disappointment. What does that say about the other services? Well, none of them generally crack 10% usage.
Is the US really a laggard? The other thing in the chart that really stood out to me was that the adoption "lag" of US mobile users varies depending on service. The US is far behind in SMS, MMS, and playing music on the phone (the last one is, I'm sure, due to the strength of the iPod in the US). But in the other categories, the US is in the middle of the pack, or even ahead (somebody explain the ringtone result to me, please).
It's always fun to stereotype the US market as primitive in all areas of wireless, but the adoption numbers don't support that. It just looks different.
What does it all mean? Orange's spin was that it means we're just getting started in mobile data, and everyone should wait patiently for the good services to take off. They showed the following growth projection from Ericsson as evidence:
No offense to Orange, but that is basically a statement of faith rather than analysis. If you're a cynic, you'll point out that the chart assumes compound growth will continue uninterrupted for a decade, something that is often true for technology specs but is rarely true for technology markets.
What we really need is time-series data, so we can see what's growing and what isn't. Unfortunately, Orange didn't present any numbers like that, but the research firm Telephia did, in a separate presentation. Unfortunately, their numbers were US only, and they didn't cut the usage categories in the same way as France Telecom. But they still show some interesting trends...
Mobile data growth in the US
Telephia measures mobile data usage by analyzing the monthly bills of mobile phone users. This should give very accurate information on revenue and number of users, but it doesn't track physical usage. Because some services are billed per-use and some have monthly subscription fees, it's hard to tell how heavily people are using the services listed below.
Telephia reports that billings are growing steadily for a wide range of mobile data services. The chart below shows total US operator revenue for mobile data from Q3 2006 to Q1 2007. (These figures include anything that passes through the user's phone bill. Applications and services paid for separately by the user are not included.)
The chart is in billions of dollars, so it shows that in Q1 2007, total on-deck US data revenue was about $4.6 billion. Is that a big number or a small one? Well, total service revenue for the US mobile operators is about $32.5 billion per quarter, according to the CTIA. So mobile data is about 14% of mobile billings.
Where is e-mail? I can't find e-mail anywhere on the chart. I'm very surprised they didn't break it out separately.
Strangely consistent growth rates. The weirdest thing about the chart is that everything's growing at the same rate. In the real world, that sort of thing doesn't often happen. I wonder if a lot of the growth might be driven by people buying service bundles, where they pay a flat extra rate per month to activate a bunch of different services, and then the revenue gets allocated across the services by the operator. That would cause everything to grow in lockstep.
If that's what's going on, then these numbers really might not say much about usage -- what they'd be tracking is the ability of the operators to sell services bundles.
Anyway, the numbers show that the US operators are making pretty good revenue from mobile data. I didn't make a chart of this, but in general, the growth in mobile data billings is large enough to make up for the ongoing decline in mobile voice revenue. So the operators aren't getting rich, but data is helping to keep them from getting poor.
More details. Telephia lumps a lot of different things in the "Downloads" category. For Q1 2007, they gave more details on that category. So I can't give you a time series, but here's a more fine-cut look at how mobile data revenue looked in the US at the start of 2007:
Premium SMS is mostly ringtones paid for via SMS, plus voting for things like American Idol. Audio is downloading and streaming of songs. The other categories are self-explanatory. I feel bad about the tiny size of the applications category, but keep in mind that most smartphone apps are sold through the web and then synced onto the device, and so don't show up in operator billings.
Number of users per service. Telephia also reported the total number of users for each service. As we saw in the Orange chart, SMS has the most users in the US (although the gap between it and the other services isn't as large as in Europe).
Revenue per user. Combining the user and revenue data, we can estimate monthly billings per user for each service:
You can see why the operators like premium SMS. And look at WAP! It never lived up to the original hype that it would become the mobile version of the Web, but as a tool for getting things like sports scores and weather reports, it's not doing too bad. (Whether it's paying for all the money that was invested in it is another story.) Video's generating the most revenue per user, but with a very tiny user base. Audio revenue (which is revenue from listening to songs, not ringtones) is fairly close to what Apple gets from iTunes users (the average iTunes user downloads about 3.3 songs per month, or about $3.30) (link).
Usage doesn't follow capability. And now for the "big" mashup. We can combine Pew Internet's figures on phone capabilities with Telephia's numbers on service usage to figure out roughly what percent of US mobile customers who know they have a given feature on the phone ever actually use it. The results are interesting:
For communication-related services, the percentage of users is quite high (although remember that we don't know how heavily the features are being used). But most mobile users are not adopting the entertainment features in their phones. That's exactly what you'd expect if only a limited percentage of the population were interested in using their phones for entertainment, which is what a lot of user studies have shown (link).
The lesson: If you're an operator or handset vendor, be careful about pushing phones that are a kitchen-sink collection of expensive features. The odds are very good that you'll spend a lot of subsidy money on people who won't ever adopt the underlying services that were supposed to justify the subsidy. It's much better to offer a variety of phones specialized for different types of user, and let them pick the ones they want.
=====
As I said at the start, it's an interesting collection of tidbits, but far too US-centric. If you live outside the US and have information to add on your market, please post a comment.
Sources:
Total revenue of the operators: link
Orange's presentation at the Global Mobility Roundtable: link
Telephia's presentation at the GMR: link
Pew Internet: link
We're left to chew on anecdotes, partial information released by companies that are trying to push a point of view, and unscientific "polls" of online enthusiasts.
So I'm always on the lookout for more rigorous information. Recently I came across several fairly good sources of data, and they give some interesting perspectives on what's happening with mobile data. It is by no means a complete view, and most of it is US only. But I think it's worth sharing.
Steady, unspectacular growth
The overall picture of mobile data is one of steady but unspectacular growth. It's a bit like watching a tree grow -- you can't see anything changing day to day, but if you walk away and come back in six months you'll notice the difference. SMS continues to be the dominant service, especially in Europe, and there's no sign of some other service surpassing it.
Is the growth rate good or bad? It all depends on how much growth you were expecting, and how fast you wanted it to happen. The one thing I think is very clear is that each country market is different, and you can't classify any of them as leaders and laggards. They're just unique.
Here are the details:
Capabilities of mobile phones in the US
The Pew Internet organization has been surveying Americans on their Internet usage for years. A couple of the questions in their survey ask about the data capabilities of their mobile phones. In the most recent results, from early 2006, 75% of mobile phone users in the US said their phones are capable of texting. 63% said they can play games, and 39% said they have cameraphones. Here's the full chart:
Nothing there stands out as shocking, although I expected the penetration of cameraphones to be higher. My guess is it has gone up in the last year.
(Note that some people could have capabilities in their phones and not realize it. So the question tells us as much about awareness of features as it does about the phones themselves.)
What people do with their phones: Nothing else rivals SMS
The chart below examines the percent of mobile phone users in the US and several European countries who have ever performed various tasks with their mobile phones. The source is M:Metrics, Q4 2006, and the numbers were quoted in a presentation by Orange / France Telecom.
The figures show that there's no other mobile data service with near the penetration of short messaging service (texting). That's not really news, but it's striking to see the hard numbers. About 80-85% of people in most of the big European countries have ever sent a text message, with France lagging slightly (at about 75%). In the US, almost 40% of mobile phone users report that they have sent a text message.
The next closest service is picture messaging, with 20-30% of mobile users in the big European countries saying they have received photo messages at least once. In the US, the figure is 15%. It's ironic that photo messaging is in second place, since it's generally considered a major disappointment. What does that say about the other services? Well, none of them generally crack 10% usage.
Is the US really a laggard? The other thing in the chart that really stood out to me was that the adoption "lag" of US mobile users varies depending on service. The US is far behind in SMS, MMS, and playing music on the phone (the last one is, I'm sure, due to the strength of the iPod in the US). But in the other categories, the US is in the middle of the pack, or even ahead (somebody explain the ringtone result to me, please).
It's always fun to stereotype the US market as primitive in all areas of wireless, but the adoption numbers don't support that. It just looks different.
What does it all mean? Orange's spin was that it means we're just getting started in mobile data, and everyone should wait patiently for the good services to take off. They showed the following growth projection from Ericsson as evidence:
No offense to Orange, but that is basically a statement of faith rather than analysis. If you're a cynic, you'll point out that the chart assumes compound growth will continue uninterrupted for a decade, something that is often true for technology specs but is rarely true for technology markets.
What we really need is time-series data, so we can see what's growing and what isn't. Unfortunately, Orange didn't present any numbers like that, but the research firm Telephia did, in a separate presentation. Unfortunately, their numbers were US only, and they didn't cut the usage categories in the same way as France Telecom. But they still show some interesting trends...
Mobile data growth in the US
Telephia measures mobile data usage by analyzing the monthly bills of mobile phone users. This should give very accurate information on revenue and number of users, but it doesn't track physical usage. Because some services are billed per-use and some have monthly subscription fees, it's hard to tell how heavily people are using the services listed below.
Telephia reports that billings are growing steadily for a wide range of mobile data services. The chart below shows total US operator revenue for mobile data from Q3 2006 to Q1 2007. (These figures include anything that passes through the user's phone bill. Applications and services paid for separately by the user are not included.)
The chart is in billions of dollars, so it shows that in Q1 2007, total on-deck US data revenue was about $4.6 billion. Is that a big number or a small one? Well, total service revenue for the US mobile operators is about $32.5 billion per quarter, according to the CTIA. So mobile data is about 14% of mobile billings.
Where is e-mail? I can't find e-mail anywhere on the chart. I'm very surprised they didn't break it out separately.
Strangely consistent growth rates. The weirdest thing about the chart is that everything's growing at the same rate. In the real world, that sort of thing doesn't often happen. I wonder if a lot of the growth might be driven by people buying service bundles, where they pay a flat extra rate per month to activate a bunch of different services, and then the revenue gets allocated across the services by the operator. That would cause everything to grow in lockstep.
If that's what's going on, then these numbers really might not say much about usage -- what they'd be tracking is the ability of the operators to sell services bundles.
Anyway, the numbers show that the US operators are making pretty good revenue from mobile data. I didn't make a chart of this, but in general, the growth in mobile data billings is large enough to make up for the ongoing decline in mobile voice revenue. So the operators aren't getting rich, but data is helping to keep them from getting poor.
More details. Telephia lumps a lot of different things in the "Downloads" category. For Q1 2007, they gave more details on that category. So I can't give you a time series, but here's a more fine-cut look at how mobile data revenue looked in the US at the start of 2007:
Premium SMS is mostly ringtones paid for via SMS, plus voting for things like American Idol. Audio is downloading and streaming of songs. The other categories are self-explanatory. I feel bad about the tiny size of the applications category, but keep in mind that most smartphone apps are sold through the web and then synced onto the device, and so don't show up in operator billings.
Number of users per service. Telephia also reported the total number of users for each service. As we saw in the Orange chart, SMS has the most users in the US (although the gap between it and the other services isn't as large as in Europe).
Revenue per user. Combining the user and revenue data, we can estimate monthly billings per user for each service:
You can see why the operators like premium SMS. And look at WAP! It never lived up to the original hype that it would become the mobile version of the Web, but as a tool for getting things like sports scores and weather reports, it's not doing too bad. (Whether it's paying for all the money that was invested in it is another story.) Video's generating the most revenue per user, but with a very tiny user base. Audio revenue (which is revenue from listening to songs, not ringtones) is fairly close to what Apple gets from iTunes users (the average iTunes user downloads about 3.3 songs per month, or about $3.30) (link).
Usage doesn't follow capability. And now for the "big" mashup. We can combine Pew Internet's figures on phone capabilities with Telephia's numbers on service usage to figure out roughly what percent of US mobile customers who know they have a given feature on the phone ever actually use it. The results are interesting:
For communication-related services, the percentage of users is quite high (although remember that we don't know how heavily the features are being used). But most mobile users are not adopting the entertainment features in their phones. That's exactly what you'd expect if only a limited percentage of the population were interested in using their phones for entertainment, which is what a lot of user studies have shown (link).
The lesson: If you're an operator or handset vendor, be careful about pushing phones that are a kitchen-sink collection of expensive features. The odds are very good that you'll spend a lot of subsidy money on people who won't ever adopt the underlying services that were supposed to justify the subsidy. It's much better to offer a variety of phones specialized for different types of user, and let them pick the ones they want.
=====
As I said at the start, it's an interesting collection of tidbits, but far too US-centric. If you live outside the US and have information to add on your market, please post a comment.
Sources:
Total revenue of the operators: link
Orange's presentation at the Global Mobility Roundtable: link
Telephia's presentation at the GMR: link
Pew Internet: link
Samsung SGH-i450: New Two-Way Slider Phone like Nokia N95
To be announced really soon, official press photos of Samsung SGH-i450 are available now from mobil.idnes.cz. The i450 featuring a similar sliding design as Nokia N95. When you move the slider up a bigger speaker is unveiled instead of a media player control buttons.The Samsung SGH-i450 is a symbian smartphone, running S60 third edition. Comes with a 2-way slider, it will be announced for GSM
A new way to measure the popularity of the iPhone
True story: Back when I was working at Apple, we received a report that there had been a burglary at a company that had a lot of Macintosh computers. The thieves took every one of the Macs -- and left behind all the Windows PCs.
We were delighted. Not about the burglary, mind you. I'm afraid we were pretty callous about that, and besides we figured the company was insured. But we loved the idea that even criminal lowlifes knew which was the better computer.
In fact, we loved that idea so much that we made a commercial about it. It was cool -- deep blue lighting, lots of shadows, and two silhouettes moving silently through the office. One of them starts to pick up a PC, and his companion hisses, "not those, just take these." And he points at a Mac.
The Computer for the Rest of Us, indeed.
At the last minute, somebody in the company realized that the commercial might just possibly be viewed as an endorsement of crime, besides which it made us look like complete mercenaries. So I don't think the commercial was ever aired. We just watched it a lot at communication meetings.
I thought of that old commercial today when I was in an AT&T (formerly Cingular) mobile phone store. There was a big video display for the iPhone, but no phones on the counter. "Did they sell out?" I asked the clerk.
"Nope. Someone broke in and stole them," he said. "We saw it on the surveillance video. They were in and out in 30 seconds. They ran over to the iPhones, cut the cables, and left."
"Did they take anything else?" I asked, thinking I saw a new commercial in the making.
"Oh yeah, they took the Treos too."
Sorry, Apple. No commercial.
And sorry, RIM. They left the Blackberries. Personally, I would have grabbed a Pearl on the way out.
By the way, if you're thinking of buying an iPhone on eBay, keep in mind -- the other thing the AT&T guy told me is that the iPhones are all serialized, and Apple can permanently turn off the ones that were stolen.
We were delighted. Not about the burglary, mind you. I'm afraid we were pretty callous about that, and besides we figured the company was insured. But we loved the idea that even criminal lowlifes knew which was the better computer.
In fact, we loved that idea so much that we made a commercial about it. It was cool -- deep blue lighting, lots of shadows, and two silhouettes moving silently through the office. One of them starts to pick up a PC, and his companion hisses, "not those, just take these." And he points at a Mac.
The Computer for the Rest of Us, indeed.
At the last minute, somebody in the company realized that the commercial might just possibly be viewed as an endorsement of crime, besides which it made us look like complete mercenaries. So I don't think the commercial was ever aired. We just watched it a lot at communication meetings.
I thought of that old commercial today when I was in an AT&T (formerly Cingular) mobile phone store. There was a big video display for the iPhone, but no phones on the counter. "Did they sell out?" I asked the clerk.
"Nope. Someone broke in and stole them," he said. "We saw it on the surveillance video. They were in and out in 30 seconds. They ran over to the iPhones, cut the cables, and left."
"Did they take anything else?" I asked, thinking I saw a new commercial in the making.
"Oh yeah, they took the Treos too."
Sorry, Apple. No commercial.
And sorry, RIM. They left the Blackberries. Personally, I would have grabbed a Pearl on the way out.
By the way, if you're thinking of buying an iPhone on eBay, keep in mind -- the other thing the AT&T guy told me is that the iPhones are all serialized, and Apple can permanently turn off the ones that were stolen.
Emgeton G20 CULT Phone
Its the same Nokia N73 Music EditorEmgeton G20 CULT Phone The Emgeton G20 CULT is going to be a Dual GSM SIM card, MP3 and MP4 player phone (112x50x15mm) Sesitive Touch Screen TFT-LCD 262k Colors 2.4-inch QVGA 2 mega-pixel camera GSM 900/1800 + Dual GSM SIM card Video (
Competitor of Apple
Emgeton Mini One Phone The Emgeton Mini One Phone is going to be a music phone (57x105x11.5mm) for the GSM networks with a 3.3-inch 720x480 pixel VGA+ touch sensitive screen, 3 mega-pixel camera, ARM11 CPU capable of recording video in 30FPS utilizing the entire screen resolution, Bluetooth and TV Out. Supposedly, it will also run the latest version of Microsoft's Windows
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)