How many Kindles have really been sold? (And other interesting tidbits about ebooks)

Although a lot of people are excited about ebooks, it's very difficult to get hard information on how the market for them is growing. We don't even know how many Kindles Amazon has sold, let alone more detailed specifics on the market.

So I was very happy Wednesday when the Book Industry Study Group (a publishing industry trade group) gave details from its recent survey of ebook adoption in the US. The survey was first revealed in January, but the press release was very sketchy and sometimes confusing. In its presentation at the Tools of Change conference, the BISG gave much more details on the results. My highlights from the presentation:

Ebook usage is growing fast, but it's still small. Roughly 2% of American book buyers over age 13 are active ebook users, meaning they obtained an ebook or a reader device in the last year. About half of those were first-time ebook buyers, so the usage of ebooks has probably roughly doubled in the last year. BISG is doing multiple waves in the survey, and says it found a 25% increase in ebook usage just over the holiday season, so it was a pretty good Christmas (and Hanukah) for ebooks.

The most-used device for reading an ebook is a personal computer (47%). Amazon Kindle is number two (32%), followed by Apple's iPhone and iPod Touch (21%).

Either there's something wrong with the numbers, or Amazon hasn't sold quite as many Kindles as some people think. More on that below.


What does it mean?

PC leadership is no surprise. There are so many PCs in the US that even a small percentage of PC users reading ebooks will swamp everything else. BISG said that the PC share of ebook reading is declining as other devices grow, also what I would have expected. I bet that in a year (or two at the most), a majority of ebook readers will be on non-PCs.

Apple is closer to Kindle than you might expect, but... A tidbit that jumped out at me was Apple's share of ebook usage. Kindle has gotten all the attention, but Apple has about 2/3 the share of Amazon in ebook usage without even trying. However, before we set off another round of "Apple uber alles" on the web, there are several big caveats:

--BISG didn't report on the number of books bought per platform. Based on my experience at Palm (which had an active e-reading community), I suspect that a lot of those iPhone book readers are pretty casual, buying a few books or publications to kill time when they are bored. I believe Kindle users are probably much more active readers.

(For comparison, about 4% of the Palm OS users in the US were reading ebooks at least occasionally in 2002. That total rose to about 8-10% if you included the Bible -- it was by far the most popular ebook. That amounts to about 1.5-2 million ebook users on Palm OS alone.)

--Apple and Kindle are also different demographically. After the presentation today, BISG told me that Kindle readers are older and more likely to be female compared to Apple readers. What we may be seeing is that if someone already carries an iPhone or iPod Touch, they're less likely to invest in yet another device just to read on it. Or maybe younger people just find it easier to read on a tiny screen. Either way, I think it's pleasant that Apple and Kindle are reaching somewhat different audiences rather than just stepping on each other.

--And of course the iPhone/iPod Touch installed base is a lot bigger than Kindle's. So as is the case with PCs, even relatively low ebook usage on the iPhone will add up to a lot of users.

How many Kindles are really in use? As far as I can tell, Amazon hasn't released any Kindle device sales figures, other than a quote referring to "millions" of users. Several analysts have jumped on the use of the plural as evidence that at least two million Kindles have been sold. But I think the BISG survey doesn't support that. Here's my math:

--About 2% of book buyers have ebooks and/or ebook devices.

--About a third of them have Kindles (that's 0.67% of active book buyers).

--If 0.67% of book buyers in the US is two million people, then there are 300 million active book buyers in the US. That is the entire US population, including infants and people who don't like books. I don't know what the base of active book buyers is in the US, but my guess is it's not over 200 million, meaning the installed base of Kindles would be about 1.3 million.

It's tricky to play with survey results when the percentages are this small -- the margins of error become very significant. But for now I think the BISG survey raises some questions, and I'm not willing to accept the two million figure for the Kindle installed base without some more rigorous evidence to support it.


Other tidbits

BISG is not going to release all of the information from the survey (that goes only to the companies that paid for it). So I took as many notes as I could during the presentation. Here's what I captured:

Ebooks are somewhat cheaper than hardcovers
On average, an ebook costs $6.25 less than a hardcover book. This is a huge issue to the book publishing industry, which worries that ebook sales will cannibalize hardcover book sales. My comment: Of course they do, get over it. The thing publishers should be looking at is the much higher margins they make per ebook sold. I don't know of many industries that resist moving to a higher-margin product, but publishing appears to be the grand exception. Of course, the thing worrying publishers is the decline of independent bookstores, and they're afraid ebooks will accelerate that. But the decline of the bookstore has almost nothing to do with ebooks -- it's being driven by online sales of paper books and predation by retail chains.

Demographics
-Ebook buyers are 51% men (compared to 58% women for paper books).
-Ebook buyers are higher income than paper book buyers. Not a lot, but significantly higher income. No surprise there -- most poor people can't afford several hundred dollars for an ebook reader. Betcha they don't buy a lot of hardcover books either.

Cannibalization
Among ebook buyers, 11% no longer buy any paper books. 8% buy mostly ebooks, and about 30% prefer to buy ebooks. So about half of ebook users prefer ebooks to paper books. That's actually a lower percentage than I expected for something that is supposed to take over the world. But remember, half of ebook users are reading on PCs. What I really want to know is the percentage of Kindle users who prefer ebooks; that'll tell us how satisfied Kindle users are.

Preferred device used to read ebooks
-PC: 47%
-Kindle: 32% (and rising in later waves of the survey)
-iPhone: 11%
-iPod Touch: 10% Hmmmm! iPod Touch really is a PDA.
-Other smartphones (including Blackberry) 9%
-Netbooks 9%
-Sony Reader 8%
-Barnes & Noble Nook 8% (the BISG folks noted that Nook was just starting to sell at this point; they believe some users confused Barnes & Noble ebooks with the Nook device)

Genres of ebooks
-General fiction, 31%
-Mystery 28%
-How To 25% (but #1 over Christmas)
-Science Fiction
-Biography
-Business
I don't know where religion and travel went. I need to learn more about how this question was asked.

Hands on with Sony Ericcson Xperia X1

Recently, Sony Ericsson sent me one of their Xperia X1a smartphones to get a hands on review. I remember when this phone was first announced, it immediately became my top choice as a Windows Mobile device, back when iPhone OS wasn't quite as good as today and the market did not have so many other choices (Android and WebOS).

The Xperia X1 is a gorgeous piece of hardware; unlike the iPhone or Palm Pre, the Xperia X1's design is a bit more masculine, with strong corners and bold lines all around. The material used on the phone is very solid, lots of aluminum and metal trims which gives the phone a sturdy and heavy feel. The sliding keyboard mechanism is solid along with all the buttons on the front and sides of this beautiful smartphone. For a slider phone with a spacious QWERTY keyboard, this phone is pretty thin and compact. I am absolutely in love with this phone's hardware design as it brings back the classic high-end phone nostalgia (holding this phone reminds me of the excitement similar to the classic Nokia 8890 that spells class, elegance and luxury). The Xperia X1a Silver can be had for $699 at SonyStyles.com but can be had for much less online (Amazon $560 shipped).

Next, we'll go over the Good, the Bad and the Ugly.

The Good: Superb hardware design and specification!
Sony Ericsson Xperia X1a (the "a" stood for version slated for the U.S. market) is loaded with features. You have the usual quadband GSM network and US 3G HSDPA data support (for AT&T) along with WVGA 800x480 display, 802.11b/g WiFi, internal memory, MicroSDHC support, fast 528MHz CPU, high capacity 1500mAh battery, AGPS, Stereo Bluetooth 2.0, 3.5mm headphone jack, FM radio, 3.1MP Camera w/ flash and lots more. The OS is Windows Mobile Professional 6.1 (which I'll get to later) but it features a unique X panel display for highly customizable homepage (icons, feeds, weather, clock, etc...). The phone can be charged via USB cable which makes it highly flexible; the full QWERTY keyboard is hiding discreetly under a unique arc shaped sliding mechanism which makes this package all so beautiful.

The most striking feature of this X1a is probably its stunning WVGA LCD display. At 800x480, the screen is immaculate and super sharp. I couldn't help but stare at the LCD screen just to see how sharp the image quality is on such a small phone. Movie watching off of this phone is an amzing experience; I'd go as far as to say that it has the best LCD of any smartphone I've seen thus far!

The Bad: User input a bit awkard!
Aside from its spacious QWERTY keyboard, I am finding the overall experience interacting with the phone a bit awkward. For instance, the buttons most frequently used are too close to the edge of the phone to be comfortable to operate with one hand (ie. volume, phone, end call, etc...). Sony used a touch-pad like button for primary navigation of the menu; it works great but is limited by how small the surface area of the button is. You can also use the standard D-pad to click and navigate but it kind of interferes with the touch-pad button which makes neither an easy task to navigate. Sony packed in two stylus so we can interact with Windows Mobile easier, I still find Windows Mobile input on screen too slow and too cumbersome.

The Ugly: Windows Mobile Professional 6.1
I can't help but noticed how dated Windows Mobile is on this phone. Its unintuitive and unattractive. I handed over my X1a to two non-smartphone users at work and both were lost and wasn't sure what to do to work the phone; whereas the same people had no problem figuring out basic functionality over my G1 or iPhone. I appreciate Windows Mobile's connection to the business world (ie. mobile Office, traditional file management, exchange/push email, etc...), however, at this point, its just too hard to convince anyone to make a switch from their iPhone or Palm Pre. If only this phone came with Android as its operating system... one can only dream.

Real Life Experience with the Xperia X1:
I took the SIM card out of my iPhone 3G and used the X1 for a couple of days. Voice calls were crystal clear; I mustered a lengthy conversation (40min+) with plenty of battery life remaining. Since X1 can be charged over mini USB, its is very convenient for me to recharge on the go. Surfing the web is extremely fast over 3G network, in fact, I think this phone is by far the fastest data connection I've experienced on a mobile. The X1 for the most part, does everything you want it to do; it just doesn't do it in a fun or stylish fashion. Sony's xPanels are a great way to display useful information to your liking but beyond that, Windows Mobile really makes the user experience quite frustrating; settings and info are often buried deep within subdirectories (ie. Camera), overall user experience (dialer, SMS thread, internet browser) just feels too dated compared to the iPhone OS, Android or Palm WebOS.

That said, I would give the hardware and design a 9 out of 10 score but the mobile experience was let down by its dated OS. A fair statement would be if you absolutely have to have a Windows Mobile device, this would be top of my recommended list. I am really interested in seeing what Sony has in store for us in the upcoming 'Rachel' smartphone featuring Android OS.

Unboxing Sony PSP-3000 Black Ratchet Bundle

As mentioned yesterday, I finally ordered a PSP. I went with the PSP-3000 with the Piano Black finish. I am very surprised to have gotten it so soon knowing the release date should have been Dec. 15, 2008 (a cool 4 days ahead of schedule thanks to Amazon.com's free Prime Membership trial).

I haven't gotten a chance to play with it a whole lot. First impression is it is very light weight considering how big this is. It feels much lighter than the first generation PSP I played with in the past. In a way, it almost feels a little cheap on the material and build quality (the UMD cover mechanism, WLAN switch, battery cover, etc...). The piano black finish is every bit as gorgeous as I imagined. The UI is very similar to what I know from PS3 which can be a good or bad thing depending on if you are a Sony or Microsoft fanboy. Inputting the WEP key to my WiFi network was kind of a pain. Unlike the PS3, a PSP will have to prompt and connect to your access point each time you want to do something on the web instead of automatically connect like a laptop or even the PS3 would.

All of these thoughts are based my first impression (or first 30 minutes) so don't put too much weight in this entry. Once I get some hours in, I will provide a thorough review from every angle. For now, enjoy the pictures and slideshow below.








Entire Photo Album Here

Review: Official Sony PS3 Bluetooth Headset

I posted a quick and random note regarding to my PS3 headset two days ago when I first got it. The fact that I ordered it from Amazon.com at 9PM on Thanksgiving Day and received it in less than 48 hours via free shipping has given me so much joy that I could hardly contain myself then. Given the fact that my mind was mainly focused on playing Resistance 2 with the remainder of my weekend with friends. I owe it to my readers to provide a thorough review of this headset, so here it is.

Cost and packaging variations:
* Official Sony Playstation 3 Bluetooth Headset sells for $49.99 stand alone from Amazon
* It also comes with Socom: Confrontation bundle selling for $59.99
I purchased the SOCOM bundle because the standalone for both items add up to $90 ($39.99+$49.99). I intend to sell the game for $20-$30 so it can bring my cost of the headset down to $30. Just a little inner eBay business man in me :) I would have kept the game if it received a higher rating, most say it was incompletely designed.

Hardware Design and Quality:
My rule of thumb with brands like Sony, Microsoft and Apple hardware are, if you can afford the little extra price they ask for, get it. Third party maker could come up with similar items but often falls a little short in terms of the intended feature. Same rule applies to this headset. For starter, it comes with a cradle for charging; it also turns your headset into a desktop mic while charging (in the event you ran out of power). This headset is the only one I know which has a large mute button on the side incase you want to carry on a conversation with others during a game. As far as fitment goes, I find it a little lose. I was hoping it would have a in-ear design so it can also filter out ambient noise for me. Sony designed this headset with clarity in mind. I was told it has two mics in it and some type of noise cancellation technology. When surveyed, most players I met online say my headset is crystal clear, similar to USB type headset. This could also because Sony has a HQ (high quality mode) that can be engaged if you paired your headphone via the mini USB cable at the back of the head set. There were no instructions in the SOCOM bundle, so you can pickup a PDF manual here. Overall, I am very pleased with this headphone's built quality along with its cradle.

Pairing
Pairing this headset could get much easier. So long as you hookup the mini USB cable to the back of the headset itself (not the cradle, I missed this point in the beginning). With this method, your PS3 will recognize the headset and engage in the previously mentioned HQ mode. It also will show User Action Indicator alert onscreen (aka UAI) whenever you do something to your headset. This, to me, is the best part of the headset, with UAI, you always know the status of your connection, volume, charging state, etc. The headset can otherwise be paired as any other bluetooth device, by holding down the power button for more than 10 seconds, the green and red led will flash alternatively to get into discovery mode. It can be used with any other device such as your mobile phone.

Wearing
Wearing the headset is easy, you just have to rotate the hook to swing around your ear lobe. I noticed if I rotate it snug, I would feel a little cramp over a short period of time. I think it was intended to be losely hung over your ear so no large movements while wearing this thing. I probably would find it unacceptable if I am always using this on the go as I would look for something more snug and comfortable, but then I'd be looking at something else, like this Plantronic 925.

Conclusion: I am very pleased with this headset and glad I decided to go with this one for my PS3. It is designed by Sony with gaming and quality in mind. If only the ear piece has an in ear design like my normal headphones, we'd have perfection.

UPDATE on charging: I always find PS3 accesories charging solution quite annoying. It assumes you charge your USB devices (controller, headset) while playing which is an oxy-moron. Since I know this headset can be charged via Desktop USB, I dusted off a couple of USB chargers for my BlackBerry and G1 phone and both seems to be working. The BlackBerry charger is my favorite since the output rating is 5V DC @ 0.5A which from my gathering, is what a default computer USB's power rating goes. The G1 USB charger is rated at 5V DC @ 0.75A, this worked as well but I am not sure if its a good or bad thing. Since I am no electrical engineer, I can't explain if either one is a good thing, what I do know is if I tried connecting my PS3 controller to either charger, nothing happens, so electronic devices with mini-USB ports probably have some kind of circuit inside to regulate and prevent wrong charging input rating. Again, this is just what I have been using as a charging solution, do so at your own risk.
---advertising---

Sony PS3 Official Bluetooth Headset

Over the Thanksgiving weekend, I've lined up a group of friends to go online and play with Resistance 2; absolutely amazing game. However, with 4 to 5 friends at once, I had a hard time strategizing with them with just one or two mobile phones. So on Thursday night (night of Thanksgiving), I placed an order on Amazon for a SOCOM: Confrontation bundle which includes the official Sony PS3 headset (game itself is $39, Bundle package is $59, Headset itself would have been $49 alone). Overall, for $59, I got a game and a Sony official headset which has been receiving positive reviews.

Today, Saturday, less than 48 hours later, Amazon shipped out the package and I actually received it! Needless to say, I was stoked. The package in the game doesn't have any instructions to the headset. After researching online, I found an archive of the Sony Gaming Manuals here and the Bluetooth Headset instructions are here.

This thing is so easy to use, simply plug the actual mini-USB cable to the headset itself (top of headset, not the cradle) and it will auto pair with your PS3. When connected to Cradle, it works as a USB Mic (just by turning it on). I am asking friends to hookup their own bluetooth headsets now to take our gaming to a new level.

My next smartphone: Sony Ericsson Xperia X1

I have mentioned a few times in the past that I am searching for a good Windows Mobile smartphone for this blog. At this point, I've narrowed down to two: 1). Sony Ericsson's Xperia X1 and 2). HTC Diamond Touch. I think considering all the features, X1 may be the winner. Having SVGA resolution (800x600) makes it very attractive, 3.5mm audio jack is a must and a true world wide support (quad-band, and 5-UMTS bands supported). While I wish it has the cool touch-flo as the HTC, I think I will go for the bigger screen, full QWERTY keyboard and world-wide support of the X1.

Found a nice clip of its UI below:

Exciting Windows Mobile Smartphones

Exciting? Windows Mobile? Did I just use these two phrases in the same sentence? Yes and it is not a mistake. As I have stated in a couple of previous blog entries, I am in the market for a Windows-Mobile powered smartphone. I need a Windows-powered phone in order to maintain and review some stories for this blog. As I am researching for a qualified phone, I am seeing some interesting options coming up in the pipeline. These phones seem to have unlocked the potential in Windows Mobile by adding some layer of widget-like functionality to a plain-jane OS (ie. Touch Flo, Custom Menu, VGA grid display). Lets begin:

1. SonyEricsson Xperia X1 (est. $999, avail Q3, 2008) - is the first windows mobile powered smartphone in its line up. This is a features power-house: 3G international (850 /900 /1700 /1900 /2100MHz), WiFi, aGPS, 800x600 resolution, 400MB memory, MicroSDHC, QWERTY, Bluetooth, FM Radio, 3.2MP Camera/Camcorder. This is an absolute gem and I want it so badly. If the price tag is approaching $1,000, it would make it very difficult to justify. Around $500-600 seems more reasonable.

2. HTC Touch Diamond (est. $750, avail June 2008) - is one of the sexiest smartphone to be released by one of the biggest smartphone ODM in Taiwan. HTC must have pulled all the tricks out of the hat on this one. With a slim design and slick finish, this phone is going to be hot. Aside from its elegant "Touch Flo 3D" UI, this phone packs 3G Euro/Asia for now, VGA resolution, WiFi, GPS, WinMo, SDHC, 4GB internal memory, Bluetooth, 3.2MP camera, etc. Its a phone with very high potential. The only thing missing from this phone is a 3.5mm headphone jack. Kind of an achille's ankle to most HTC phones.

3. Velocity 103 (est. ?, available Q2 2008) - A relative new comer to the smartphone scene has a mystery-like presence. Its minimalist design with a glossy black finish spells elegance and high end design. With a host of amazing specifications such as GPS, 3G (850/1900/2100MHz), WiFi, VGA resolution, Bluetooth, . It doesn't look like TouchScreen is available so all of the commands are done through the trackball which can make it quite difficult to perform simple tasks (ie. dialing number, select a menu icon, etc.)

Potential Contender: Samsung BlackJack II (SGH-i617). This phone has the perfect size and form. With 3G data, full QWERTY keyboard and GPS at the cost of $319 without contract from Newegg.com, I am almost ready to commit except that it lacks WiFi which is still an important function to have.

PS3 Update: BD-Live

Sony is expected to release a update for the PS3 later this month. It is said to add Blu-ray Disc Profile 2.0 (BD-Live capability), copy photos and music playlists onto their PSP, and even use it as a remote control for playing music and stream video files. Another special feature is "resume play", which will allow the user to begin playing at the last point of stoppage for Blu-ray discs and DVDs even when the disc is taken out of the drive. Additional Blu-ray players are slated for release with a ethernet port but not BD-Live, which may come in later software update.

Sony Launches ICF-ClipMK2 iPhone Clock Radio

Sony launched the ICF-ClipMK2 — a stereo clock radio which supports the iPhone. And Sony is one of the first companies to launch such a device.The Sony ICF-ClipMK2 comes with a remote control with full access to the iPhone’s menu along with the clock’s radio tuning and volume control. The adjustable backstop mechanism fits the iPhone snugly, although smaller iPod versions could also be used with

Sony annouces A820 Walkman Series to be launched in Japan

We can see the use of portable media players is on the rise with companies trying to load as many features and enhancement as they can to these small and useful devices. The choices of such devices are plenty in the market and while big players like Apple, Creative and Sony fight an electronic war, the user gets the best. A classic example is the announcement from Sony to launch its new walkman

Notebooks Galore...Lenovo & Apple

Everyone is excited to be back from the holidays and see what is yet to come from CES and MacWorld. Not as interesting as products from these shows but here are two new items from computer makers Lenovo and Apple.

Lenovo Y710 & Y510
With the durability and engineering of the ThinkPad, Lenovo is launching a stylish version of their notebooks called the IdeaPad in early January. Models include the Y710 targeted to gaming and entertainment users and the Y510 for the all-in-one user. Key features include those borrowed from the ThinkPad such as an air-bag-like device that is designed to protect data during a fall and the popular comfort keyboard, as well as other features such as Dolby Home Theater system, 6-in-1 card reader, and face-recognition technology that allows users to instantly log on to their computer by looking at the screen (The computer takes a photo of the user, and matches it against a database of registered users.). Lenovo has been known for the plain, black business notebooks but is now making its move into a very crowded consumer market to compete against the likes of Apple, HP, Dell, Acer, Toshiba, Sony, and more. With all the notebooks making a fashion statement, Lenovo is pricing their product in the high-end range of $799 - $1199.

Axiotron Modbook (Tablet)

Displayed at the last MacWorld, Axiotron is releasing an Apple-authorized tablet Mac, called the Modbook, targeted to artists and design-oriented professionals. It is modified MacBook without screen and keyboard replaced with a tablet screen. Key features include Mac OS X Leopard, a pen that offers 512 levels of pressure sensitivity, built-in iSight Webcam, GPS, 802.11n Wifi, and more. It will be displayed at this year's MacWorld and is already for sale on Axiotron's website at $2,279. A second version is available with a faster processor, larger hard drive, and Double-layer Superdrive at $2,479.

Sony Mylo 2 images

The first pic surfaced from the FCC website and the second pic shortly after. The second pic is supposed to be a pretty accurate mock up of what the new Sony Mylo will look like. This device will succeed the original Sony Mylo and will feature PSP like software and features. Looks good...

Sony Mylo 2 images

The first pic surfaced from the FCC website and the second pic shortly after. The second pic is supposed to be a pretty accurate mock up of what the new Sony Mylo will look like. This device will succeed the original Sony Mylo and will feature PSP like software and features. Looks good...

O'Reilly Web 2.0 Summit: No Cave of Wonders

There is so much happening in the Web world that I went into this year's annual O'Reilly Web 2.0 event hoping it would be like Aladdin's Cave of Wonders--full of bright shiny new companies that did amazing things, each more enticing than the last.

Instead, the conference was more like a United Nations conference, full of important people talking about important issues, but not a lot of surprise or dazzlement. The name "summit" really does fit. That’s not the fault of the folks at O'Reilly; their conference has just grown in stature so much that it attracts CEOs from huge companies as speakers. By definition those people are very careful about what they say, and don't make major announcement at an industry conference.

So while it was interesting to see people like the CEO of AT&T, we didn't necessarily learn a lot. But there were a couple of highlights worth passing along…

The full article is on the Rubicon Consulting web site, here. There's no registration required. From a mobile perspective, the highlight (or lowlight) is a quote from VC Ram Shriram on what a mobile software company has to do in order to get funded.

Holiday Wish List: Mobile Devices

Holiday season is around the corner and I have come up with a wish list of mobile devices and gadgets. I am hoping at least someone in my pool of friends and family will be reading this list and pay close attention.

Laptop: Sony TXN-007 (James Bond 007 TX Spy Gear Bundle)
Runner-Up: Apple Macbook 2.0GHz

Small Form Factor PC: Sony UX Series
Runner-Up: SAMSUNG UMPC

Smartphone: Sprint Samsung IP-830W (International CDMA & GSM)
Runner-Up: Palm Treo 750v

Cellphone: Helio Drift (by Samsung)
Runner-Up: T-Mobile BlackBerry Pearl (I know, this is technically a smartphone)

Data Plan: Sprint 3G EV-DO Rev. A
Runner-Up: Cingular UMTS

Portable Gaming Console: Nintendo DS Lite
Runner-Up: Playstation Portable

Portable Entertainment: Apple iPod 80GB
Runner-Up: Apple iPod Nano 8GB